Transiciones en el hogar y transferencias monetarias condicionadas.

Abstract

El presente trabajo busca estudiar como la participación del programa de transferencias monetarias condicionadas, Asignaciones Familiares – Plan de Equidad (AFAM – PE) puede afectar la estructura del hogar, los arreglos de pareja y la salida del hogar de los y las hijas en hogares beneficiarios. Asimismo, se exploran diversos canales que puedan afectar la salida del hogar de origen. Para esto, se utilizan diversas fuentes de información. Se emplea la primera ola de la Encuesta de Seguimiento del programa AFAM – PE, una encuesta representativa de los hogares postulantes al programa la cual cuenta con información respecto a los resultados de interés. Asimismo, esta fuente se complementa con información proveniente de registros del Certificado del Nacido Vivo (CNV) y registros de educación media provenientes de SECLI y UTU. La estrategia de identificación seguida explota la discontinuidad en la probabilidad de participación del programa, para utilizar un diseño de regresión discontinua. Este trabajo consiste en una primera aproximación a la salida del hogar de origen, siendo necesarios mayores estudios para comprender la importancia y canales guiando este efecto.

The present work seeks to study how the participation of the conditional cash transfer program, Asignaciones Familiares - Plan de Equidad (AFAM - PE) can affect household structure, couple’s unions and disolutions and the probability of daughters and sons in beneficiary households of leaving home. Likewise, various channels that may affect leaving the parental home are explored. For this, various data sources are used. This work uses a representative survey of households applying to the program, which has information regarding the outcomes of interest. Additionally, this is complemented with information from records of the Certificado del Nacido Vivo (CNV) and secondary education records from SECLI and UTU. The identification strategy followed exploits the discontinuity in the probability of program participation, using a discontinuous regression design. No effects of the program were found on household structure, as well as on transitions between household types. Also, the results do not indicate that there is an effect on the probability of being in a couple, as well as on stability and couple dissolutions. Finally, there is an effect of greater permanence in the parental home for sons and daughters between the ages of 18 and 24 at the time of the survey, which could contribute to reduce the gap in the age of leaving home between sectors. Regarding the channels that could be guiding this effect, there is a positive and significant effect on the probability of attending secondary education, being this a possible channel. The result regarding the longer stay in the home of origin is relevant considering that the AFAM - PE is a program with a broad coverage, with nearly half of the country’s minors residing in beneficiary homes. However, this work consists of a first approximation to the effect of the policy on leaving the parental home, further studies are necessary to understand the importance and channels guiding this effect.