El impacto de la inversión en infraestructura de transporte en el crecimiento económico de Uruguay

Abstract

El presente trabajo analiza la existencia de una relación de equilibrio entre la inversión en infraestructura de transporte y el crecimiento económico para Uruguay en los últimos años, y analiza la causalidad entre estas variables. A partir de información del Ministerio de Transporte y Obras Públicas sobre inversión en infraestructura de transporte (gastos en infraestructura vial) y el Producto Interno Bruto de Uruguay para el período 1988-2014, se estudia la relación causal entre estas variables sobre la base de análisis de cointegración y modelos de corrección al equilibrio.

The present paper analyzes the existence of a balance between investment in transport infrastructure and economic growth for Uruguay in recent years, and analyzes the causality between these variables. Based on information from the Ministry of Transport and Public Works on investment in transport infrastructure, (expenditures on road infrastructure) and the Gross Domestic Product of Uruguay for the period 1988-2014, the causal relationship between these variables is studied on the basis of Cointegration analysis and equilibrium correction models. Three alternative models are used. A base model, which identifies the relationship only between infrastructure in transportation and GDP. The other two models include covariables at the United States interest rate (in the first), and tons transported by land (the second). In all these cases, an equilibrium relationship is identified in the long term. The analysis of causality indicates that for the period under analysis, this goes from the GDP to investment in transport infrastructure, and not vice versa, contradicting the hypothesis of departure. It would be of interest for future research to incorporate an indicator of investment in more complete transport infrastructure, with investment data not only in road infrastructure, but also investments in airports, railways and ports. However, based on the evidence gathered in this research, it is possible to state that there is a long-term relationship between the two series and at the end of the analyzed sample, this investment is below what indicated the equilibrium of each of the models.