Título:
Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels
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Autor:
Chen, Kai
Schrijver, Evan de
Sivaraj, Sidharth
Colistro, Valentina
Schrijver, Evan de
Sivaraj, Sidharth
Colistro, Valentina
Tutor:
Tipo de documento:
Artículo
Editor:
Palabras clave:
Descriptores:
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD
ANCIANO
FRÍO EXTREMO
CALOR EXTREMO
CALENTAMIENTO GLOBAL
MORTALIDAD
TEMPERATURA
PERSONA DE MEDIANA EDAD
ANCIANO
FRÍO EXTREMO
CALOR EXTREMO
CALENTAMIENTO GLOBAL
MORTALIDAD
TEMPERATURA
Año de publicación:
2024
Contenido:
Resumen:
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
Descripción:
Kai Chen 1 2, Evan de Schrijver 3 4, Sidharth Sivaraj 3 4, Francesco Sera 5, Noah Scovronick 6, Leiwen Jiang 7 8, Dominic Roye 9 10, Eric Lavigne 11 12, Jan Kyselý 13 14, Aleš Urban 13 14, Alexandra Schneider 15, Veronika Huber 15 16, Joana Madureira 17 18 19, Malcolm N Mistry 20 21, Ivana Cvijanovic 22; MCC Collaborative Research Network; Antonio Gasparrini 20, Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera 3 4
Collaborators MCC Collaborative Research Network: Ben Armstrong, Rochelle Schneider, Aurelio Tobias, Christofer Astrom, Yuming Guo, Yasushi Honda, Rosana Abrutzky, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Alireza Entezari, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de'Donato, Masahiro Hashizume, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado Diaz, César De la Cruz Valencia, Ala Overcenco, Danny Houthuijs, Caroline Ameling, Shilpa Rao, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Xerxes Seposo, Susana Pereira da Silva, Iulian Horia Holobaca, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Martina S Ragettli, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Shih-Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Valentina Colistro, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Hanne Krage Carlsen, John Paul Cauchi, Souzana Achilleos, Raanan Raz
Affiliations 1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. kai.chen@yale.edu. 2Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. kai.chen@yale.edu. 3Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. 4Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. 5Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy. 6Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health. Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. 7Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China. 8Population Council, New York, NY, USA. 9Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain. 10CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain. 11Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada. 12School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada. 13Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic. 14Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic. 15Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany. 16Chair of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany. 17Department of Enviromental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal. 18EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal. 19Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal. 20Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. 21Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy. 22ISGlobal - Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain.
Collaborators MCC Collaborative Research Network: Ben Armstrong, Rochelle Schneider, Aurelio Tobias, Christofer Astrom, Yuming Guo, Yasushi Honda, Rosana Abrutzky, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Klea Katsouyanni, Antonis Analitis, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Alireza Entezari, Patrick Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Francesca de'Donato, Masahiro Hashizume, Barrak Alahmad, Magali Hurtado Diaz, César De la Cruz Valencia, Ala Overcenco, Danny Houthuijs, Caroline Ameling, Shilpa Rao, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Xerxes Seposo, Susana Pereira da Silva, Iulian Horia Holobaca, Fiorella Acquaotta, Ho Kim, Whanhee Lee, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Martina S Ragettli, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Shih-Chun Pan, Shanshan Li, Valentina Colistro, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Tran Ngoc Dang, Do Van Dung, Hanne Krage Carlsen, John Paul Cauchi, Souzana Achilleos, Raanan Raz
Affiliations 1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. kai.chen@yale.edu. 2Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. kai.chen@yale.edu. 3Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. 4Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. 5Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy. 6Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health. Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. 7Asian Demographic Research Institute, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China. 8Population Council, New York, NY, USA. 9Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid, Spain. 10CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain. 11Environmental Health Science and Research Bureau, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada. 12School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada. 13Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic. 14Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic. 15Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany. 16Chair of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany. 17Department of Enviromental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal. 18EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal. 19Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal. 20Environment & Health Modelling (EHM) Lab, Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom. 21Department of Economics, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy. 22ISGlobal - Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain.
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Editorial:
Nature Publishing Group
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Nature Communications. 2024;15(1)
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Citación:
Chen K, Schrijver E, Sivaraj S y otros. Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels. Nature Communications [en línea]. 2024;15(1). 13 p.
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Licencia Creative Commons Atribución (CC - By 4.0)
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| Ficheros | Descripción | Tamaño | Formato | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact of population aging on future temperature.pdf | Impact of population aging on future temperature | 8.57 MB | Adobe PDF |